This final assignment consists of five questions, worth 50 points each, whose answers are to take the form of 1-3 page essays (hence five to fifteen pages aggregate).  The intention is to leave considerable discretion in the distribution of effort across questions.  Each question requires some thought, but any reasonable effort to engage with the matters raised by these questions will earn partial credit.  (Naturally, the more coherent and insightful the thought, and the more strongly connected are the answers to the material presented in the readings and recordings assigned for the course, the more points will be earned).

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1)Suppose that a set of examination questions are sent to a class of 40 students, the responses to which are due a couple of weeks thereafter.  Among the submitted responses, there is a subset of more than 20 submissions that exhibit a striking similarity of content and verbal formulation, a similarity all the more remarkable given the fact that most of the answers are incorrect, some incorrect in a quite bizarre way .  Some flavor of two of the most egregious of these answers are captured by the following illustration, carefully crafted to give an indication of the various dimensions along which the responses go radically wrong: Question: “Pick a prime number between 100 and 1,000, and, using the method discussed in class, calculate its square root to three decimal places”.   In response, 20 students select the number 64, and all 20 give the number 9.32184 as its square root.

Approaching this puzzle in accordance with the mode of analysis embodied in Bayes’ Theorem, how would one go about evaluating the relative probabilities of hypotheses such as H1)Each student selected the number and derived this answer independently of the others; H2)The students worked together to gain an understanding of the indicated method of extracting square roots, and then each proceeded independently to select a number and work out its square root; H3)The students all utilized a uniquely easily accessible source to understand the method for the extraction of roots, but then fell into the same natural mistake in calculating the square root.

Discuss whether any of these hypotheses provide plausible explanations of these responses.   Are there other a priori plausible hypotheses that might account for this response?  For each of the hypotheses H1, H2, and H3, construct  a (less extreme) variant of this illustration that makes that hypothesis plausible.

2)Summarize the argument developed in Sections 1-5 of Carl Hempel’s Studies in the Logic of Confirmation, specifically that part of the paper than deals with Nicod’s characterization of the confirmation relation and the example of the Ravens that undermines it.  Discuss the following situations:

a)The urn in front of you either contains 100 white balls (H1), or 75 white balls and 25 black balls (H2).  Assume that these are the only two hypotheses that are at play.  Does the blind extraction of a white ball confirm H1?  H1 and H2?  Neither?  Discuss.

b)Granted the logical equivalence of “All ravens are black” and “All non-black objects are non-ravens”, what accounts for our intuition (or illusion) that the observation of a white piece of chalk confirms the latter but not the former statement?

c)Granted that any observation that confirms one of the two universal generalizations must confirm the other, why is it that the observation of a white piece of chalk confirms (or perhaps just seems to confirm) the two logically equivalent generalizations to a lesser degree than does the observation of a black raven?  Can you define a universe in which the observation of a white piece of chalk confirms “All ravens are black” to a greater degree than does the observation of a black raven?

3)There are three desserts A, B and C, where it is assumed that the agent X prefers both A and B to C.

Suppose a coin in our possession is biased 2-to-1 in favor of Heads (i.e., it has a 2/3 chance of landing Heads and a 1/3 chance of landing Tails when tossed), and that (concerning this coin) the statement “The coin lands Heads” functions as an ethically neutral proposition for X (that is, a proposition, whatever its probability, to whose truth or falsity X is indifferent).

a)Design a series of pairs of lotteries (utilizing this biased coin) that demonstrates that X’s preference for A over B is more than two times but less than ten times his preference for B over C.

b)What role is played by the supposition of the existence of a neutral proposition in the employment of a scheme of lotteries in calibrating an agent’s preferences?

4)In their paper Picking and Choosing, Edna Ullmann-Margalit and Sidney Morgenbesser argue that i)that there are no fundamental impediments to the existence of picking situations proper;  ii)that picking situations are quite common; iii)that there are no systematic rules for the transformation of a choosing situation into a picking situation that do not involve the pick of one rule rather than another.  Summarize their argument and evaluate their position.

You might consider, in particular, the following questions: Is there any reason that the chance device suggested by Nicholas Rescher for selecting among alternatives among which one is indifferent need to be unbiased?  Can one argue that any selection situation, whether a choosing or a picking situation, invariably resolves at some stage of implementation into a picking situation?  

5)This is a question about “Newcomb’s Problem”.

Two boxes, one transparent and visibly containing $1,000 (A), and one opaque (B) are placed before an agent X at time t.  The contents of A are supposed fixed, the contents of B known by the agent to have been determined by the prior action of a highly accurate Predictor that has placed $1,000,000 in box B if it predicted that X will select only box B and has placed nothing in box B if it predicted that X will select both boxes.

A)Assume (for the sake of argument) a universal acceptance of the in fact  completely discredited hypothesis that the strong statistical correlation between smoking and a host of serious diseases including lung cancer is accounted for by a genetic factor that is the common cause of both.  In your view, can someone who believes that these statistics should not in themselves present a deterrent to smoking reconcile this view with an advocacy of the “one-box” solution to Newcomb’s Problem?

B)Suppose that the back of box B is transparent, and that a completely trustworthy and reliable friend of X is able to see whether $1,000,000 is in box B.  Assume that the Predictor can predict what if anything the friend will say and what X will hear, and that it has factored this into its prior analysis and decision.  If the friend were able to communicate with X, does it matter whether i)the friend simply recommends a selection (“Take both boxes!”) or ii)reveals the actual contents of box B to X (e.g., “Box B is empty”)?  Why or why not?  If the friend were able to announce out loud the contents of box B, would it be advantageous for X to place himself in a situation in which he is unable to make out what his friend says?  Explain.  

One of the many reasons social workers conduct needs assessment is to provide support for new programs. Social workers have many methods available to collect necessary data for a needs assessment.

Social workers can use existing data from a wide range of sources, including local and national reports by government and nonprofit agencies, as well as computerized mapping resources. Social workers can gather new data through interviews and surveys with individuals and focus groups. This data can provide the evidence that supports the need for the program.

To prepare for this Assignment, review the needs assessment plans that you and your classmates generated for this week’s Discussion. Also, review the logic models that you created in Week 7 and any literature on needs of caregivers that you used to generate them. Consider the following to stimulate your thinking:

• Getting information about the needs of the target population:
  • Who would informants be?
  • What is your purpose for interacting with them?
  • What questions would you ask?
  • What method would you use (interview, focus group, questionnaire)?
• Finding potential clients:
  • Who would informants be?
  • What is your purpose for interacting with them?
  • What questions would you ask?
  • What method would you use?
• Interacting with the target population:
  • Who would informants be?
  • What is your purpose for interacting with them?
  • What questions would you ask?
  • What method would you use?

By Day 7

Submit a 2- to 3-page paper outlining a hypothetical needs assessment related to the support group program for caregivers. Include the following:

• The resources needed to operate this service
• The program activities
• The desired outcomes
• A plan for gathering information about the population served
• Justifications for your plans and decisions
• A one-paragraph conclusion describing how you might conduct a follow-up to the needs assessment at the implementation stage of the program evaluation

Required Readings

Dudley, J. R. (2014). Social work evaluation: Enhancing what we do. (2nd ed.) Chicago, IL: Lyceum Books.
(For review) Chapter 6, “Needs Assessment” (pp. 107–142)
Chapter 7, “Crafting Goals and Objectives” (pp. 144–164)

Document: Tutty, L. M., & Rothery, M. A. (2010). Needs assessments. In B. Thyer (Ed.), The handbook of social work research methods (2nd ed.,pp. 149–162). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. (PDF)
Copyright 2010 by Sage Publications, Inc.
Reprinted by permission of Sage Publications, Inc. via the Copyright Clearance Center.

Optional Resources

Stewart, K. E., Phillips, M. M., Walker, J. F., Harvey, S. A., & Porter, A. (2011). Social services utilization and need among a community sample of persons living with HIV in the rural south. AIDS Care, 23(3), 340–347.
Note: Retrieved from the Walden Library databases.

Walter, H. J., Gouze, K., Cicchetti, C., Arend, R., Mehta, T., Schmidt, J., & Skvarla, M. (2011). A pilot demonstration of comprehensive mental health services in inner-city public schools. Journal of School Health, 81(4), 185–193.
Note: Retrieved from the Walden Library databases.

week 7 discussion

Practice-level logic model outline

Problem

Needs

Underlying causes

Intervention activities

Outcomes

-Overwhelmed by the responsibilities 

-displeasures with meals

-lacks support from the family including the kids and the husband

– exhausted both mentally and physically.

– Attention is needed

– Social support from the kids and husband

-psychiatric therapy on self-care strategies

– training that can help deal with caregiving activities.

– Not accepting that the family can help in household chores and needs

– the only available caregiver for the widowed 81 years

– meagre self-care

– Inadequate skills for the caregiving activities.

– support groups that deal with caregiving

– Both profit and nonprofit organizations specializing in caregiving 

– fortified with new caregiving skills

– improved insight in self-care bettered by self-care routines

– Tiredness, fatigue and stress will be reduced.

Due to lack of support from family members (kids and husband), Helen is overwhelmed and stressed and this are signs of depression. Depression and fatigue according to Nipp et al. (2016) are some of the signs that caregivers have to suffer from. According to Clauss et al. (2018), interventions such as focusing on caregiver behaviors can help reduce fatigue and stress.

Program-level logic model outline

Problem 

Needs 

Underlying causes 

Intervention activities 

Outcomes 

– Lack of support from the family team, especially in helping her mother-in-law who also has declining mental ability.

-problems with caregiving the elderly 81 years old mother-in-law

– obtain knowledge, skills and strategies that can help in providing sufficient care for the elderly widow.

– accept the need that she can’t do all the caregiving alone and that the family (kids and husband) need to be included

– lack of support from the family 

– inadequate knowledge and skills that can help in caregiving

– Inadequate resources that can help in caregiving.

This program should help in offering support services that are sufficient for training caregiving strategies and skills.

-connections that can help link up organizations that are experts in caregiving with the caregiver.

– adequate skills that are satisfactory for caregiving

– coping appliances 

– help from family members

– protracted provision system

– Open-mindedness in caregiving and affluence in stress. 

Psychiatric therapy and participation in caregiving programs are some of the ways that can help Helen’s need for assistance. Since psychiatric therapy is all about talking and encouraging, the client is able to cope with matters before him/her. Chen et al. (2019) explain that psychiatric therapy helps promote quality of life for people experiencing difficulties in their lives. 

In a Microsoft Word document of 4-5 pages formatted in APA style, you will discuss your interview of an older adult. This person cannot be a patient in your clinical setting. You can use a friend, family member, or co-worker. The older adult must be age 65 years or older.
There are two parts to this assignment – the psychosocial interview component and the functional assessment.

Interview

Download the patient questionnaire. Use this format to record the person’s responses.

• Include 2–3 questions of your own to get a complete picture of the older adult.
• Summarize your findings.
• Include the questionnaire with responses in the Appendix of your paper.

Assessment

After gaining permission, conduct a physical and mental functional assessment of the older adult you have chosen. Review your readings for the process of a functional assessment.

• Use the tools discussed this week to complete a comprehensive assessment of your patient. Search the Internet for resources on these tools.
  • Tinetti Balance and Gait Evaluation
  • Katz Index of Activities of Daily Living
  • Assessment of Home Safety
  • The Barthel Index
  • Do not include a name on each tool, but do include professional or other designation, and age. Your name should also be identified on the tool.
    • Include these tools in the Appendix.
• Based on your assessment:
  • Compare and contrast the age-related changes of the older person you interviewed and assessed with those identified in this week’s reading assignment.
  • Identify at least 4–6 preliminary issues.
  • Identify three alterations in health that you would propose and describe them.
  • Identify a minimum of three comprehensive interventions for each alteration.
  • Integrate cultural considerations in your interventions.
•  

FACTS FOR THIS DISCUSSION:

Ted DeWiz has a classic muscle car that he fixed up and has enjoyed drag racing.  He has kept it well maintained.  Much as he loves the car, Ted finds himself in need of cash. He parks the car on his front yard, with a large sign on the windshield that says, “Cherry of a classic car, For Sale $4,500 or Best Offer. AS-IS.”

Marlee Cheree drives by and sees the car. She is immediately enamored and stops to look at it. Marlee is sure the car is underpriced.  When she knocks on Ted’s front door, there is no response; she looks around, and decides nobody is home, so she takes her business card and on the back writes, ” I will pay you $5,000 cash for your classic car. I will return later when you are home.”  She signs her name, and dates it, including the time, and slips the card into the screen on the front door.

After Marlee leaves, about a half hour later,  Ted returns. He does not see Marlee’s card because he never uses his front door, only the side or back doors. A few minutes after he is home, his buddy, Dave Dancer, pulls in to look at the car. Dave has always liked the car. Dave offers Ted the $4,500 asking price, which Ted accepts. The two men shake hands on the deal. Ted goes in the house to get the car title while Dave writes out a check to Ted for $4,500.

As Ted comes out of the house with the title in his hand, and just before Dave hands him the check, Marlee pulls in. She has an envelope of $5000 cash for the car. Ted says to Marlee,“sorry, but I have just sold the car to Dave here.”  Marlee objects and says she already offered the $5000 earlier.  

When Ted says, “No, you didn’t,” she marches him to the front door and shows him her card.

“There was my offer, I already left you before.  You weren’t home and now I have the money right here,” she said.

Ted turns to Dave, and says, “Sorry, there was already another offer; I just didn’t know about it, so I ‘m going to sell the car to Marlee for the $5000.” 

Dave objects, stating, “You just said you already sold it to ME. We shook hands on it. You cannot back out now just because some card was floating around no one knew about. She wasn’t even here!”

While the three of them stand in the yard arguing, Joe Don Townerbucks drives in the yard. He gets out of his Mercedes, looks at the muscle car, and moseys over to the three arguing people.  He asks, “who owns that hot rod for sale?”

“I do,” says Ted.

“No, I do,” says Dave.

“It’s mine,” snaps Marlee.

“I’ll pay whichever of you, $8,000 for that car,” says Townerbucks,  “provided the engine starts.” 

Ted answers, “Of course it starts. I accept your offer.”

Dave hollers, “NO! That car is no longer for sale! I bought it!” (Waving the check in Ted’s face.)

Marlee stomps over to the muscle car and sits on the hood, grabbing the sign off it.  “It’s my car. I was here before all of you and I have real money in hand.” she yells.

Ted says to Joe Don,” Pay no attention to them. I have the title — right here. Let’s start the car.”

YOU BE THE JUDGE.

DECIDE WHO GETS THE CAR.  PREPARE YOUR DISCUSSION ESSAY USING THE ABOVE FACTS, DISCUSSING THE FOLLOWING:

• What are issues you see here?
• Applying the principles of contract law, who gets the car, if anyone, and for how much? Explain your reasoning using the definitions and principles of contract provided in Lessons, required readings and any other research you do.
• What is the situation if Ted (or Dave…. or  ? …..whoever) accepts Townerbucks’ offer and the car doesn’t start? Does “As Is” still apply?